USMCA

International Trade Today is providing readers with some of the top stories for April 22-26 in case they were missed.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, wrote an opinion piece published in The Wall Street Journal April 28 that reiterated his often-expressed view that without the end of steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the new NAFTA will not be ratified. He wrote: "If these tariffs aren’t lifted, USMCA is dead. There is no appetite in Congress to debate USMCA with these tariffs in place." Mexico and Canada have placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including agriculture, and Grassley said the Mexican tariffs on pork have lowered the value of each hog by $12.

The Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee have joined together in a third letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that lays out specific shortcomings of the new NAFTA in areas they care about. The first two letters addressed labor and the environment. This one focuses on enforceability of all commitments in the deal. According to Democratic House staffers, there will be a letter issued about biologics, as well.

The director of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, Larry Kudlow, said "a lot of headway" is being made in trade negotiations with China, and that there's discussion of another trip to continue in-person negotiations. "We're not there yet, but we've made a heck of a lot of progress," he said at a National Press Club luncheon April 23. "I don't want to make a prediction or a forecast" on reaching a resolution, he said. "Will we succeed? I don't know. We're a heck of a lot closer than we were. Sometimes it goes hot and cold."

Mexican Ambassador to the U.S. Martha Barcena, speaking April 22 at the Georgetown Law School conference on U.S. ratification of the new NAFTA, implored: "We need USMCA not to be taken as a political hostage. We need USMCA to be taken in its own merits." She also said, "We should not let politics stand in the way of free trade that has yielded benefits for both of our societies."

Liberal activists who opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership -- and some that have been active since they opposed NAFTA -- will work to pressure lawmakers to sign a letter demanding that a 10-year exclusivity provision for biologic drugs be removed from the new NAFTA. They are organizing events around the country for April 24, with buttons that say "NAFTA 2.0: Pharma Rigged It, Will Congress Fix It?"

Industry groups and unions continued to react to the International Trade Commission's analysis of the new NAFTA the day after the report was released, with most saying the report confirmed what they already knew.

The International Trade Commission estimated that by the sixth year after the new NAFTA's ratification, the U.S. economy would have 176,000 more jobs than it would have without the new revised trade deal. That's a 0.12 percent increase compared to the status quo.

The International Trade Commission released its estimate of the economic effect of revisions to NAFTA, one of the steps necessary for a vote in Congress under Trade Promotion Authority. Because there are few tariff changes in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, economists focused on the advances in digital trade and job growth due to tighter auto rules of origin. Across the economy, the ITC estimated that ratifying USMCA would lead to an additional 176,000 jobs, a 0.12 percent increase.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, arguing that the International Trade Commission's econometric models are better suited for tariff changes than changes in rules of origin, has produced its own report on how the auto rules of origin will affect domestic employment.