The U.S. and the EU didn’t appear to make much progress on export controls, investment screening and other pivotal areas of cooperation at the latest Trade and Technology Council meeting this month, experts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies said during a Dec. 12 event. The two sides still look to be closely aligned on Russia controls and sanctions, the speakers said, but until the TTC announces more concrete measures, it remains unclear how similarly they view restrictions on China.
Exports to China
The U.S. should prepare a range of economic and financial restrictions against China to deter it from invading Taiwan, including new sanctions against Chinese banks and outbound investment restrictions on Chinese technology sectors, said Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska. Sullivan said the sanctions should “go far beyond what has been imposed on Russia” and make clear to Beijing that “no corner of its economy will be left untouched by sanctions.”
Technology competition with China, including U.S. foreign direct investment reviews, will be part of the oversight priorities of the Republican-controlled House during the next Congress, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California said last week.
The Bureau of Industry and Security this week renewed the temporary denial order (TDO) for three U.S. companies for their involvement in illegally exported technical drawings and blueprints to China (see 2206080068). The order, issued in June, was renewed for another 180 days, BIS said Dec. 5, partly because the agency found possible evidence of additional export violations.
China has been more receptive to U.S. end-use checks on Chinese entities as a result of a Commerce Department policy change from October, Bureau of Industry and Security Undersecretary Alan Estevez said this week. Estevez also said he doesn’t expect any significant revisions to BIS’s most recent chip restrictions on China, and warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would spark new, strict U.S. export controls that would cause U.S. companies to lose “billions” of dollars in Chinese business.
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U.S. share of global semiconductor design revenue has declined over the past decade, partly due to export controls and other trade restrictions, the Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group said in a report last week. If the U.S. continues on its path and doesn’t properly tailor its restrictions, U.S. shares of global revenues could drop 10 percentage points over this decade, the report warned.
As the U.S. tries to convince allies to adopt similar export controls against China (see 2210270047 and 2210070049), some trading partners have voiced concerns over the U.S.’s strategy, saying they would rather have worked on crafting restrictions alongside the U.S. as opposed to having controls forced upon them, a Commerce Department official said.
Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., one of the primary movers behind the Chips Act, told an audience that more domains need policymakers' attention so that they don't wake up to find that China has become dominant in an important emerging technology. He noted that before becoming a politician, he "was in the telecommunication space," and said that realizing that China is dominating 5G with two heavily subsidized champion companies was the "final wake-up call" that engagement and deeper trade with China is not the right way to go.
Semiconductor companies are still awaiting licensing decisions on their chip-related activities involving China under the U.S.’s new export controls, with some concerned that licenses awarded to their competitors could hurt their revenue. In earnings calls and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission this month, U.S. chip and technology companies said they continue to prepare for drops in sales to China and that they fear Chinese customers may soon replace them with alternative suppliers, causing some U.S. companies to permanently lose their market share in China.