U.S. peak broadband growth downstream and upstream "has essentially plateaued," NCTA said Wednesday, citing data from cable ISPs. It said some state or regional peak demand trends might vary, but there's a consistent national pattern. Our reporting has shown the same. Others have also seen plateauing in data usage trends (see 2004060038).

Those seeking more broadband deployment in New York state objected to a Charter Communications petition that the FCC Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase I auction exclude census blocks where the cable operator is obligated to upgrade and expand broadband as part of its 2016 Time Warner acquisition (see 2004140015), in comments posted through Wednesday in FCC docket 19-126. "Charter’s failure to participate in the RDOF proceeding means that it cannot comply with the standards for reconsideration, and it should not be permitted to use the waiver process to circumvent Commission procedures," the Wireless ISP Association said. Granting the petition would "undermine the certainty needed to inspire robust auction participation," said ISP Starry Inc. NCTA defended Charter's petition, saying the waiver is needed to satisfy RDOF's policy of "targeting support to areas that would not otherwise be served." The New York State Public Service Commission wants the FCC to "ensure that New York State is not harmed and declare that if Charter’s petition, or other similar requests, is granted for Phase I, New York will remain eligible for future phases of RDOF auctions."

Traditional video ratings are “solid (for now),” Cowen analysts wrote investors Tuesday, but unit losses could have “further downside” from a COVID-19 recession. Though linear TV ratings are “up meaningfully” during the crisis, Cowen expects “heightened cord-cutting pressure due to a COVID-19 driven recession” as linear TV’s price-value becomes top of mind for subscribers vs. over-the-top video, said analyst Greg Williams. In this macro environment, traditional video is a “2-sided coin”: Live local news is leading higher ratings for traditional TV, though sports cancellations and delays could affect the value of traditional video, noted Williams and colleague Colby Synesael: Cord-cutting trends should continue, as hourly employees look for ways to shed personal expenses, and streaming services provide cheaper video options. Cutting the cord involves sacrifice, but the wide selection of options in this OTT era makes that decision “more tolerable in a recession,” said the analysts, forecasting a 4% drop in cable subscriptions this year. OTT and pay-TV services are riding the wave of sheltering at home: Since the week of March 14, the Starz app has had a 44% bump in average viewership and a 142% increase in new customers, and Disney reported April 8 it had passed 50 million paid subscribers globally, noted analyst Doug Creutz. The coronavirus outbreak has driven a “significant linear ratings tailwind” for most cable network groups “other than Disney," he said, whose ESPN network was slammed by the shutdown of live sports.

Time Warner Cable complied fully with a 2011 state court order it provide documents to San Antonio for the city to complete its franchise fee audit of the cable company, and now the city's 2017 federal lawsuit seeking back fees from the period in question plus from an additional period should be barred for its lack of timeliness, said TWC in a motion to dismiss Friday in U.S. District Court in San Antonio (in Pacer, docket 17-cv-01232). Even if timely, the claims also are outside of general accounting principles, it said. City outside counsel didn't comment Monday. San Antonio filed an opposed motion (in Pacer) for leave to file a second amended complaint, citing ongoing discovery turning up clarifying information.

The roughly 7% decline in cable subscribers top companies had in 2019 was "a free fall of traditional cable TV," and 2020 losses will likely eclipse them, CCG Consulting President Doug Dawson blogged Friday: Uncertainty of household incomes will likely drive even more to move to cheaper entertainment.

Charter Communications might not be able to identify and terminate all users who pirate copyright materials, but the cable ISP hasn't argued it can't terminate some, U.S. District Judge Brooke Jackson of Denver said in an order Wednesday (in Pacer, docket 19-cv-00874) denying Charter's motion to dismiss a copyright suit brought by numerous record labels (see 1903250004). The order adopted Magistrate Judge Michael Hegarty's recommendation on the dismissal motion. Charter didn't comment Thursday.

Much as auto insurers are refunding customers some money due to less driving during the pandemic, cable TV subscribers should get back some of what they pay for sports channels no longer carrying live games, CCG Consulting President Doug Dawson blogged Wednesday. Cable companies also shouldn't have to pay sports networks, he said.

Roku pulled back its 2020 forecast, citing economic uncertainties due to COVID-19. It expects Q1 revenue to be slightly higher than projected due to effects of sheltering at home, with other metrics generally in line with the prior outlook. “While we believe that our offerings to consumers, content providers and advertisers will enable our Company to deliver value in these uncertain times," there are "wider business and consumer impacts, as well as the duration of the pandemic,” said Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden Monday. Roku expects Q1 revenue of $307 million-$317 million vs. a midpoint outlook of $305 million in February's shareholder letter. The streaming media provider estimated it had 39.8 million active accounts March 31, a net increase of nearly 3 million since Dec. 31. Streaming hours will be 13.2 billion, a 49% year-to-year bump, it said. In early Q1, Roku completed the rollout of its “Are you still watching” feature, which exits video playback after long periods of user inactivity, a feature that will moderate streaming hour growth, the company noted. CEO Anthony Wood said Roku has been working with advertisers to help update their plans to reflect new viewing patterns and adjust their overall marketing mix, “which has been affected by social distancing.” Wood expects some marketers to pause or reduce ad spending near term. Tuesday, Pivotal Research raised its 2020 net new active accounts forecast to 11.5 million from 10 million and sliced platform monthly revenue per average active accounts from 21% growth to a 2% decline “to attempt to account for what appears to [be] 40-50% declines in on-line video CPMs,” analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors. The combination drove a reduction in Pivotal's 2020 revenue growth forecast from 40% to 23%. The company's path to profitability is "unclear," as it looks to navigate "a likely recession while expanding its workforce to support its next leg of growth," Wedbush's Michael Pachter wrote investors. It will take time to achieve profitability in international markets, said the analyst, "while declining advertising demand puts the current year at risk." Roku's Q1 report is May 7. The stock closed 10.3% higher Tuesday at $106.53.

Cable operators have been adding residential broadband share for a decade, and the pace picked up during the pandemic, when people are highly reliant on the service, New Street Research's Jonathan Chaplin wrote investors Tuesday. He said that trend isn't expected to reverse. Residential trends will face some headwinds from the recession, as household formations slow, pay TV declines, business failures accelerate and advertising drops, the analyst said. Residential broadband should grow through the recession, and cable is well positioned to take advantage of that, he said. Charter Communications reported it added 119,000 internet subscribers in March due to its 60-day free offer for new customers with students or educators in the household. The cabler said residential internet connects, excluding the free offer, also were up this March over March 2019.

The FCC circulated a draft order clarifying aspects of the TV Viewer Protection Act based on the NPRM released in January on retransmission consent talks between MVPD buying groups and large station groups (see 2001310047), the agency told us. It went on circulation last week (see here).