Thune's Likely Bid as GOP Head Clouds Outlook for Communications Panel Leadership

An all-but-certain bid by Senate Communications Subcommittee ranking member John Thune (S.D.) to take over as the chamber’s top Republican from current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is throwing uncertainty into lobbyists’ expectations for who will hold the party's subpanel leadership role in the next Congress. In the House, some Republican contenders to replace term-limited Communications Subcommittee Chairman Bob Latta (Ohio) have emerged, but the race to be the party’s Commerce Committee leader and other factors continue to cloud the subpanel sweepstakes (see 2402290054).

Thune told us Wednesday night GOP conference rules would allow him to serve as Senate Communications chairman up to two more two-year terms if Republicans win control of the chamber in the November elections. Thune has been Senate Communications’ lead Republican since 2019 (see 1901160046), two years as chairman and three as ranking member. Senate GOP rules limit any panel or subpanel leader to a maximum of 12 years in that role, six as chair and up to six as ranking member. The conference bars subcommittee leaders from further time as ranking members once they reach their term limit as chair.

Thune, who is Senate minority whip, is highly likely to seek promotion to McConnell's role and would face at least one declared opponent, former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas. Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming is also likely to seek McConnell’s job. Some Senate watchers view Thune as the front-runner. Thune “is reaching out to each of his colleagues directly to discuss the future of the Senate Republican Conference and what they would like to see in their next leader,” his spokesperson said Thursday after Cornyn’s candidacy announcement.

Thune cautioned that his future in the Senate Communications slot will depend on whether he runs for and wins chamber Republicans’ backing to succeed McConnell. “I enjoy our work” on Senate Commerce but trying to game out whether Communications’ leadership will change in the next Congress is “getting way ahead of the game,” he said. “That’s a lot of hypotheticals” and “I’m not worried about that yet.”

“It’s premature” to be thinking about whether Senate Communications’ Republican lead seat will be vacant in the next Congress and potential candidates for the seat, but “typically subcommittee chairmanships are allocated based on seniority,” said Commerce Committee ranking member Ted Cruz, R-Texas. “I would anticipate [that] continuing.”

Wicker, Fischer Unlikely

The two senior-ranking Republicans on Senate Commerce behind Cruz and Thune -- former panel and Communications Chairman Roger Wicker (Miss.) and Sen. Deb Fischer (Neb.) -- declared themselves in interviews as likely out of the running to take over from Thune as the party’s subpanel head. Other senior Commerce Republicans, including Consumer Protection Subcommittee ranking member Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) and Space Subcommittee ranking member Jerry Moran (Kan.), told us it’s premature to discuss leadership changes in the next Congress. Blackburn was House Communications chair during the 115th Congress, just before her 2019 shift to the Senate.

Wicker, who’s now Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member, said he wants to “take” the panel’s gavel if Republicans win back the majority. Fischer, meanwhile, noted she’s “already ranking member” on the Rules Committee and the Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, so under GOP conference rules “I can’t take on any more” subpanel leadership roles. Caucus rules limit a Republican senator who holds a committee leadership role to the top seat on only one subcommittee.

“I think it’s important that I stay on” as lead Strategic Forces Republican rather than prioritize pursuing the Senate Communications gavel, Fischer said. But several telecom lobbyists cautioned against counting out Fischer, noting she has been active on spectrum issues on Senate Commerce and Armed Services. She's a skeptic on allowing 5G use of the 3.1-3.45 GHz band given the potential impact that would have on the frequency’s incumbent military systems. Fischer is lead sponsor of the Senate version of the Defend Our Networks Act (HR-6189/S-1245), which would reallocate 3% of unspent and unobligated funding from the FY 2021 appropriations omnibus, the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act and other COVID-19 aid packages to pay out an additional $3.08 billion to the FCC’s Secure and Trusted Communications Reimbursement Program (see 2304210069).

Senate Communications Chairman Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M., is staying neutral. “I appreciate all the members” on the subpanel “who have an interest in this space, many of them who I’ve had a chance to work with on these issues,” he told us. “I’m hopeful” that if Thune relinquishes the GOP seat, his replacement will be “someone who is interested” in communications issues “because it can get wonky, and it makes a difference all across the country.”

Thune will remain an important player in telecom and tech policymaking regardless of whether he remains lead Republican on Senate Communications or becomes the party’s chamber leader, lobbyists told us. Cruz and Thune have formed a strong partnership on communications issues during this Congress, including their unified push for changes to USF and skepticism about the FCC’s affordable connectivity program (see 2312150068). They are also collaborating on the draft Spectrum Pipeline Act, which would reinstate the FCC’s general spectrum auction authority through Sept. 30, 2027, and directs NTIA to identify within two years at least 1,500 MHz of spectrum for nonfederal and shared use (see 2311220063). That partnership is likely to remain intact even if Thune succeeds McConnell, lobbyists said. He has been a leader on tech and telecom matters for so long now, including his stint as Senate Commerce chairman, that it would be hard to step away from those issues in an elevated leadership role, observers said.