Questions Surround Effectiveness of US Chip Controls on China AI Development, Report Says

The Biden administration’s October semiconductor chip controls against China (see 2210070049 and 2211010042) are expected in the short term to “constrain” the country’s access to the most advanced chips “used in computationally intensive subfields” of artificial intelligence, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an April report. But the controls could spur Chinese AI researchers toward “subfields that are less computationally demanding” and lead them to develop “new competitive advantages” in those areas, the report said.

Although the U.S. controls were “probably” in part meant to “preserve US advantages in language modeling,” IISS said it isn’t “clear that such measures will be effective.” It said researchers are “actively seeking to develop more computationally efficient methods of training similar models,” and attempts “by one country to restrict the computing power of another as a means of competing over AI development,” including through export controls, “may incentivise the target country to develop competitive edges in these more computationally efficient AI approaches.”