Former WTO Official Talks Change and Leadership Ahead of 12th Ministerial

While the World Trade Organization's upcoming 12th Ministerial Conference presents an opportunity to start meaningful discussion over revising the globe's leading multilateral trading body, the event will lack an immediate solution to pressing issues such as appellate body reform or an end to the all-purpose member veto, a former WTO deputy director-general said. Speaking at a Nov. 18 event on MC12 hosted by the Washington International Trade Association, Alan Wolff, now a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also explored the leadership dynamics that will be in play at the Nov. 30-Dec. 3 conference.

He discussed what MC12's agenda will not include: formal adoption of any plurilateral agreements as a part of the WTO; reconfirmation that WTO is about progressive trade liberalization -- which is something Wolff said has been done in the past; and unified condemnation of forced labor.

Wolff also laid out what he sees as fundamental changes needed for the organization, including a stronger executive. "The staff of the [International Monetary Fund] IMF comes up with proposals," he said. "The staff of the World Bank comes up with proposals. The staff of the WTO secretary is not expected to come up with proposals. I think it should be more forward-leaning, and members should want that to happen."

Another essential element is the end to the all-member veto, Wolff said. "None of them are going to give up their all-purpose veto, but I think that has to be part of reform," he said. "Can you block any agenda that you don't like one of the items on it? It's what Pascal Lamy, a former director-general, called medieval procedures of the WTO."

Noting that nothing happens in the "big rooms," with all the good stuff taking place behind the scenes, he mused on the U.S. role at the conference. Wolff said that U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai "has great potential" but will acquiesce to the U.S.'s more general position of engagement without seizing the lead. The European Union also is "back," Wolff said, after what he described as a series of "extramarital" affairs with other multilateral trading schemes.

China has shown signs of willingness to engage, Wolff said. The world's second-largest economy launched an initiative on plastics pollution at the WTO and has shown a change of position on items such as an Environmental Goods Agreement and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. But, "will they put any muscle behind it? Unclear," Wolff said. "There are indications of more openness, indicating they want to join CPTPP. Straws in the wind, and there is skepticism on behalf of major trading partners on whether China would contribute much, but there are possibilities."

The current director-general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, will undoubtedly have a large impact on the conference's success, Wolff said. She brings a lot of energy, high-level contacts and a visibility typically reserved for the IMF and World Bank, and is "trying very hard" to translate this to actionable results. The question now is whether she brings "political magic" to the process. "She seemed to be able to promise to get things done, and we'll see whether that magic exists," Wolff said. "I wouldn't bet against her."