Roku Had Higher-Than-Expected Q1 Revenue, Withdraws 2020 Outlook; Stock Up

Roku pulled back its 2020 forecast, citing economic uncertainties due to COVID-19. It expects Q1 revenue to be slightly higher than projected due to effects of sheltering at home, with other metrics generally in line with the prior outlook. “While we believe that our offerings to consumers, content providers and advertisers will enable our Company to deliver value in these uncertain times," there are "wider business and consumer impacts, as well as the duration of the pandemic,” said Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden Monday. Roku expects Q1 revenue of $307 million-$317 million vs. a midpoint outlook of $305 million in February's shareholder letter. The streaming media provider estimated it had 39.8 million active accounts March 31, a net increase of nearly 3 million since Dec. 31. Streaming hours will be 13.2 billion, a 49% year-to-year bump, it said. In early Q1, Roku completed the rollout of its “Are you still watching” feature, which exits video playback after long periods of user inactivity, a feature that will moderate streaming hour growth, the company noted. CEO Anthony Wood said Roku has been working with advertisers to help update their plans to reflect new viewing patterns and adjust their overall marketing mix, “which has been affected by social distancing.” Wood expects some marketers to pause or reduce ad spending near term. Tuesday, Pivotal Research raised its 2020 net new active accounts forecast to 11.5 million from 10 million and sliced platform monthly revenue per average active accounts from 21% growth to a 2% decline “to attempt to account for what appears to [be] 40-50% declines in on-line video CPMs,” analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors. The combination drove a reduction in Pivotal's 2020 revenue growth forecast from 40% to 23%. The company's path to profitability is "unclear," as it looks to navigate "a likely recession while expanding its workforce to support its next leg of growth," Wedbush's Michael Pachter wrote investors. It will take time to achieve profitability in international markets, said the analyst, "while declining advertising demand puts the current year at risk." Roku's Q1 report is May 7. The stock closed 10.3% higher Tuesday at $106.53.