South Korea-Japan Trade Dispute Won't Be Solved Soon, Panelists Say

The Japan-South Korea dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon, and some blame should be placed on the U.S., trade experts said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event on Sept. 30. While former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens said the Trump administration's use of export controls to address trade issues might have encouraged Japan and South Korea to take similar steps, former National Security Council staff member Michael Green said U.S. inaction is partly responsible for the escalating tensions.

“The complete negligence is sort of shocking to those of us who have been in government before,” Green said. “It’s stunning the administration hasn’t done more.” Panelists were pessimistic about the chances of a quick solution. Green said the two sides have a 50 percent chance of finding a solution. Park Cheol-Hee, an international studies professor at Seoul National University, said communication between the countries is “almost broken.”

“We are facing a totally unprecedented situation of broken dialogue between Korea and Japan,” Cheol-Hee said. “There is no easy fix.”

Stephens, who is also the president of the Korean Economic Institute, said trade measures taken by both Japan and South Korea mirror aspects of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The administration's approach to disputes with foreign countries is setting a precedent for allies to follow, such as the U.S.'s use of export controls to restrict Chinese companies, she said. “Unfortunately, the administration has set a rather unfortunate example of using a trade mechanism, an export control mechanism, to deliver messages,” Stephens said.

She also said the administration's “interest in sovereignty” and its unwillingness to “overextend” itself in the affairs of foreign countries has allowed the dispute to quickly worsen. “The Trump administration has remained rather detached, at least until recently, from the issue,” Stephens said.

Each panelist said the U.S. should be doing more. Green suggested the U.S. hold a trilateral “export control meeting” between the three countries to raise and discuss export issues before they escalate. He also suggested that representatives from each country’s Chamber of Commerce hold a trilateral meeting “not to solve the problem, but just to talk about the advantages of cooperation on 5G and trade.”

Stephens said the U.S. should “play a role,” such as simply starting a dialogue between Japan and South Korea. Cheol-Hee agreed. “The one thing the United States can do is to facilitate communication between the two countries,” he said. “The U.S. can encourage both South Korea and Japan to sit together and seriously consider how to solve the problem.”

But Green said he doubts whether the U.S. will intervene anytime soon and questioned each country's commitment to solving the dispute. South Korea is continually distracted by North Korea, Green said, while the Trump administration is preoccupied with potential impeachment proceedings and “does not seem interested in managing alliances or relationships.”

Cheol-Hee suggested Japan and South Korea sign a “standstill agreement” to stop further escalation while they negotiate, adding that the relationship will continue to deteriorate if the two countries don’t start talking soon. “It’s getting worse and worse,” he said. “We have to find a way to stop it.”