Florida Delegation's Votes on New NAFTA Could Be Withheld Over Agriculture

Could Florida's 27-member delegation vote no on the new NAFTA because seasonality provisions for antidumping laws didn't make it into the agreement? There "certainly have been conversations about that," according to Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a pro-trade Democrat from Florida, who added, "And I think Georgia is another one of the states that is deeply interested in seeing a resolution."

Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., told International Trade Today on July 16, "I want to vote for USMCA and I'm going to do everything I can make sure I can do that."

When asked if he would withhold his vote if there isn't special protection for Georgia berry growers who face Mexican competition, Carter didn't answer directly. "We are working tirelessly to get to where we can vote for it," he said. "It is a very critical issue ... for us, and of course we want to protect our berry farmers, and our fruit and vegetable farmers. Just because it's not in the deal per se doesn't mean there aren't other things that you can do to help them, and that's what we're trying to work on right now." He said he's getting reassurances that there are other ways to help them.

The antidumping laws require that growers show injury due to imports across the entire country. While that was possible with tomatoes, since so many growers use greenhouses much of the year, the entire blueberry crop, for instance, does not compete with Mexico's growing season, just that for the growers in Florida and Georgia.

Lisa Lochridge, director of public affairs for the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association, said farmers of strawberries, blueberries, bell peppers, tomatoes and watermelons in Florida have been most affected by competition from Mexico. She said that the Mexican government subsidizes investments in greenhouses, irrigation systems and other technology for its produce farmers, which allows them to sell at prices under the cost of production.

Murphy, who represents the Orlando area, said, "It looks like the tomato issue is being handled ... but we also need some language to handle all the other seasonal products. And while it may not be in the agreement, there has to be some recourse for our seasonal growers. And that's something that we've made very clear on a bipartisan basis to ... [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer. Our seasonal growers need a mechanism to enforce against unfair trade practices. And the rest of the farmers in this country have that ability, and why shouldn't we? We're being unfairly disadvantaged by the fact that [the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement] doesn't address seasonality within the agreement, so our expectation is that Ambassador Lighthizer will work with us to establish some alternative method to address the concerns of our seasonal growers."

Lochridge said that when her association heard about the renegotiation of NAFTA, FFVA looked at it as an opportunity to change antidumping laws. But she said that when it came down to the very end of things, "our trade issue ended up on the cutting room floor, so to speak," she said.

Lochridge said FFVA does not expect USMCA to be reopened and a seasonality provision to be added. She said Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has made it clear that the deal is done. So they recognize it's no longer Lighthizer who can solve their request, but that antidumping laws will have to change. She pointed to H.R. 101, which is sponsored by the entire 27-member Florida delegation and four of Georgia's nine Republican House members, including Carter. "We’re continuing to work on garnering support for that," she said.

Lochridge said her organization is not asking Florida delegates to condition their votes on a seasonality fix -- but some appear to be doing so.

Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman Democrat from Florida, said on July 18: "It's going to make it very difficult for me and many of my colleagues [from Florida] to support it" if there isn't a solution for Florida's berry and tomato farmers who compete with Mexican producers.

Lochridge said of that kind of talk that "that’s their prerogative and we’re glad that they’re taking that stance. That’s not something we’re urging them to do, per se."

The ranking member of the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, Vern Buchanan, is a Floridian; he declined to talk to a reporter from ITT and his communications staff did not respond to a question on seasonality by press time.

Murphy declined to say whether she'd be a no vote without seasonality. "I haven't committed one way or the other to where I'll be on USMCA in the sense that there are still a number of outstanding issues -- from enforcement, environment and labor in addition to seasonality -- that I'd like to see move forward, before I make a commitment. As you know, once you make a commitment, you lose all your leverage, and we aren't yet resolved."

If the entire Florida delegation -- including 13 Republicans -- and four Georgia Republicans voted against USMCA over seasonality, would it put ratification in jeopardy? The math seems to say not really. That's because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn't intend to rely on 198 votes from Republicans and a former Republican, with just 20 votes from Democrats. "There is no way the Speaker will bring this to the floor if there isn't broad support in the Democratic caucus," Murphy said. "This is not going to be a bill that passes with Republicans and some Democrats, as some Republicans unhelpfully tried to say."

Dickinson Wright international trade lawyer Dan Ujczo said, "I think Lighthizer made the vote calculus when he dropped seasonality from the negotiations. I agree wholeheartedly seasonality is not going to change the calculus." Ujczo's firm tries to game out who is on board, and has estimated 18 Republicans will be lost at the outside. "The only way I see seasonality being an issue is if Pelosi doesn't bring USMCA to a vote" this year, he said, which would give too much time for critics to pile on.

It's not clear what broad support means among 235 Democrats. But even if Pelosi would be willing to bring it to the floor with just 50 Democrats on board, Lighthizer can still afford to lose the 17 Republicans who are on the seasonality bill. Buchanan and Murphy are the only Floridians on Ways and Means, so their votes are unlikely to make the difference there, either.