IDC Forecasts 3rd Straight Year of Smartphone Declines but Sees Reversal Coming

The smartphone market is spiraling toward its third straight year of declining shipments, reported IDC Wednesday. It's forecasting a 0.8 percent worldwide volume decline to 1.39 billion handsets, blaming longer replacement cycles, challenges in China and geopolitical headwinds. Second-half shipments are expected to reverse course, growing 2.3 percent from 2018 on a “new high for technological innovation” from foldable and 5G phones, said analyst Ryan Reith. The nascent 5G era is expected to “ramp quickly,” he said, and though uses for upgrading to a 5G device aren’t yet compelling, adoption is expected to reach “significant numbers” beginning next year. IDC expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for roughly one out of every four smartphones shipped globally in 2023 out of a total 1.54 billion. In 2019, 3G smartphone shipments will fall 25.4 percent to 57.5 million, while 4G phones inch ahead 0.2 percent to 1.3 billion with 95 percent market share, said IDC. Some 6.7 million 5G phones are forecast to ship this year, headed to 401.3 million in 2023 when 5G phones are forecast to grab 26 percent share vs. 72 percent for 4G models.