UAW Says New NAFTA Not Good Enough

Canadian and U.S. auto workers are more favored than any other interest in the new NAFTA, but after a visit from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to the United Auto Workers union in Dearborn, Michigan, March 5, the head of the UAW said the rewrite doesn't do enough. The new rules of origin not only require that more of the car's parts come from the region, but with the $16-an-hour wage provision, it will prevent Mexican-built cars from complying unless they have substantial Canadian or U.S. content.

"We welcome the dialogue and continue to advocate for a 'New' NAFTA that will be a good deal for working people by lifting wages in the United States and creating more good jobs," UAW President Gary Jones said. "While some progress has been made, it is clear from current auto company investments abroad, that more work needs to be done to make this agreement enforceable and meaningful to our members and their job security."

Welles Orr, who was assistant USTR for congressional affairs during the George H.W. Bush administration and a NAFTA negotiator, said the rules of origin -- and especially the wage provision -- are a big deal. He would have expected that was "the winning hand for getting unions on board here. Clearly not."

The International Trade Commission has not released its analysis of how much the new rules of origin would affect U.S. auto manufacturing employment, but during a public hearing, one commissioner asked Matt Blunt, the head of the Detroit automakers' lobby, if the changes will halt the progression of work to Mexico but not reverse the trend. Blunt said he thought so.

Orr said it's no different from 25 years ago, the UAW position "has that stranglehold on member decisions" in the Democratic caucus, and if UAW opposes the rewrite, a majority of Democrats will say to their leadership that they won't vote for the deal. "That does not bode well for any action later this spring or summer," said Orr, now a senior international trade adviser at Miller & Chevalier. "I think they've got to have something rolling along no later than the end of June. Some people maintain they can get something moving in the fall -- I think that's really dicey."

If it passed, the new NAFTA was always expected to do so mostly with Republicans. But Orr added, "I think there'd be a sizable chunk of Republicans that would hold out for not considering the implementation bill until the UAW is on board." Ohio, Michigan and Indiana delegations -- the states that sent workers to hear Lighthizer -- are all majority Republican in the House of Representatives. Orr said there could be between 15 and 20 Republicans who would vote no on the rewrite.

Orr said he's surprised the changes are not winning over the UAW, because they're clearly an improvement from the status quo, and because he thought Lighthizer worked closely enough with autoworkers during negotiations that he knew what would get them on board.

If the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the new NAFTA, is not ratified this year, Orr said, "there's just no way it can get done next year." But he doesn't think the current NAFTA will remain in force for the long haul. "I think ultimately this will pass. It might be the next administration, whoever it is," he said. "It's going to be put off to 2021 if it doesn't get done this year."