At Minimum, Mexico Expecting US Assurance by Nov. 30 of Plans to End Section 232 Tariffs

By the time NAFTA's replacement agreement is signed Nov. 30, Mexican Ambassador Geronimo Gutierrez said, his "expectation is that we will have ... a solution to the tariffs on steel and aluminum, or at least a very clear track that gives certainty to all parties involved that a solution is coming," he said at a Nov. 20 Brookings Institution event on U.S.-Mexico relations. "We are working heavily on that in the next nine days."

Gutierrez was less specific about when the Mexican Senate might take up legislation to end protection unions. The text of the new NAFTA says: "It is the expectation of the Parties that Mexico shall adopt legislation described above before January 1, 2019." He noted that the language also says "entry into force of the agreement may be delayed until such legislation becomes effective."

"So that's crucial," he said. And, he added, U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the likely Speaker of the House next year, has talked about how important it is that this reform takes place.

"I think that the new majority in the Mexican Congress sees very favorably that reform. Obviously I cannot guarantee that that will happen immediately," he said. Earlier in the event, he said the changes called for in the new NAFTA's labor chapter are "a huge step forward on improving labor standards, and union transparency, and union independence in Mexico."

But will Democrats agree that this is a huge change, and that it will change the calculus of companies seeking cheaper labor while retaining access to the U.S. market? Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Anthony Wayne isn't sure. "I think we will see objections, especially from the House of Representatives, from a labor concern," he said. "I'll honestly say, it's going to be a really hard slog, and I don't know where it will come out in the end."

Gutierrez agreed that getting such a comprehensive trade deal through the U.S. Congress "is never a walk in the park," but said that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was quite cognizant during the negotiations of needing to make some changes to satisfy Democrats and others to satisfy Republicans.

"The equilibrium, I think it works," he said. He noted that legislators have not lined up to oppose the new NAFTA, saying instead that they need to look at the text in detail. And he pointed to what he called "radio silence" from American unions -- none have come out against the new NAFTA, despite the fact that the old NAFTA has been, as he called it, "a punching bag." He said, "Sometimes silence is better than public discussions."