Former Australian PM Predicts US Will Rejoin TPP After Trump Leaves Office

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull offered a full-throated defense of free trade in a speech to a Washington think tank. "There is no question that free trade and open markets means more jobs," Turnbull said Oct. 4 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said his consistent rejection of protectionism seemed out of step with the global trend after the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But he spoke with pride of how Australia, New Zealand and Japan led the charge to save the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the U.S. withdrawal. Even without the U.S., the remaining 11 countries account for 15 percent of global trade volumes, he said.

Australia will get better access for its beef and dairy exports to Japan, he said, as a result of TPP. "We were not distracted by the rising tide of protectionism." He pointed out that Australia is the only country that was spared steel and aluminum tariffs without any quotas on its exports. While he said that Australia has a $20 million trade deficit with the U.S., and implied that helped him win over Trump, he said using the balance of trade argument will not be a winning strategy for the U.S.

But if "fair and reciprocal" treatment is the argument, "that's one that appeals to every strain of common sense and fairness," he said. Turnbull said rejoining the TPP would be difficult for Trump, but he said, "I'm confident the U.S. will rejoin at some point in the future." He said the U.K. and Indonesia may join the pact as well.

The Q&A that followed the speech at CSIS touched on heavy-handed action overseas by the Chinese. Turnbull said Western democracies think the appeal of the rule of law and democracy is self-evident, but for many countries, it's not. "It's why countries speak to those values, and defend them, and propound them and live them, now more than ever," he said, "because they are contested now more than ever."