International Business Scholar Says China Trade War Won't Last Through 2020

While an Atlantic Council scholar doesn't expect tariffs on Chinese goods to be lifted in the next six months, he said a resolution next year may be coming. "I don't believe there's any incentive for the administration to back down, certainly before the mid-terms," said Bart Oosterveld, the director of the Atlantic Council Global Business and Economics program. But, he added, he doesn't think the administration is interested in waging a trade war with China through the election in 2020. He also said the Chinese are willing to compromise.

Oosterveld said so far, tariffs are not causing inflation for consumers, and even if they do during the Christmas shopping season, he thinks the effect will be small enough that it won't create political pressure to abandon the tactic. "Right now the price impact is not broadly felt, the job impact is not broadly felt," he said on a Sept. 27 call with reporters.

He dismissed the administration's argument that by targeting soybeans or pork, China is trying to interfere in the mid-term elections (see 1809270007), partly because China's list is now broader than that. Targeting the Midwest "is an attempt to erode the support for these trade policies in the U.S. electorate, it's part of the strategy of every country that's facing U.S. tariffs," he said.